Comments on the 2000 Gold Glove Winners and other Ratings 
---------------------------------------------------------

For years, we've commented on the Gold Glove winners, pointing out where 
we believe the votes got it right and where they clearly missed the boat.
Generally speaking, the voters tend to reward the same players, year after
year, and they place a lot of emphasis (way too much, in my opinion) on 
fielding percentage.  In 2000, I believe the the voters had their worst 
year in a very long time.

We have written elsewhere about the challenges of evaluating defense and
the steps we have taken to get beyond the limitations of traditional 
fielding statistics and range factors.  In short, we have developed a 
series of analytical programs that use play-by-play data to assess 
fielding ability.  Our methods are described in detail in an article 
called "Evaluating Defense" that you can find on our web site.

With that having been said, let's go through the Gold Glove winners, one
position at a time.


Pitcher
-------

Kenny Rogers was a good pick.  He led the league with 64 successful chances,
made only two errors, scored quite well in our fielding analysis, and did a 
great job shutting down the running game.  Other good candidates included 
Steve Trachsel and Orlando Hernandez.

In the other league, Greg Maddux won his 11th straight, and there's no
question about his fielding ability.  But it must also be said that he has
a head start on his competition because he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher 
who creates for himself a ton of opportunities to make plays.  This year, 
he led the majors by handling 93 chances successfully, making only two 
errors in the process.  Nobody else was close, but no other pitcher had
anywhere near as many balls hit into his zone, either.

If you adjust for the number of opportunities to make plays, a few others
ranked above Maddux this year, including Randy Wolf, Kirk Rueter, Darren 
Dreifort, and Garrett Stephenson.  If I had a vote, I'd have picked Rueter,
who made 52 plays without an error.  But Maddux is a very good choice, too.


Catchers
--------

Ivan Rodriguez is the owner of one of the best throwing arms in history, 
and has been a lock for this award for many years.  He's also among the 
leaders in fewest passed balls allowed per nine innings over the past five
years (Charles Johnson and Dan Wilson are the only everyday catchers ahead
of him).  But Rodriguez missed half the season, and I think this would 
have been a great opportunity to recognize Brad Ausmus, who throws very 
well and has no weaknesses behind the plate.

I don't recall anyone talking about Matheny as a great defensive catcher 
before this season.  Maybe it's because he had never thrown out more than 
34% of opposing runners before gunning down 52% this year.  Of the 68 
catchers with at least 1000 innings behind the plate in the past five 
years, Matheny ranks 21st in passed balls allowed per game.  And he's 
been in the middle of the pack in fielding bunts over that span.

The St. Louis pitching staff did a very good job of holding runners, but
Matheny still had to make the throws, so he deserves a lot of credit, too.
Even though our analysis indicates that his teammate, Eli Marrero, was 
slightly better than Matheny in just about every way, Matheny did have a 
very good year in 2000, and I have no quarrel with his selection.


First basemen
-------------

This year's crop of first basemen strike me as one of the weaker groups 
we've seen in many years.  There are some guys (Vaughn, Thomas, Konerko) 
who are designated hitters masquerading as defensive players.  There were 
an awful lot of older players manning the position this year, and while 
some of them were quite good once, all are sliding due to age and/or 
injury.  Some of the better fielders (Travis Lee, McCarty, Conine,
Brogna) didn't play much.  

Todd Helton stood out, Mark Grace and Tino Martinez continued to play 
well, and several other veterans had solid defensive seasons.  But the 
weakness of the overall crop helped newcomers like Todd Zeile, Richie 
Sexson, and Ryan Klesko look better than I would have expected. 

After years of playing very good defense and getting no recognition for 
it, Olerud now enjoys a terrific reputation, and he won the Gold Glove
this year as a result.  His range was nothing special, but he led AL 
first sackers in fielding percentage and anchored the infield that made 
the fewest throwing errors in the league and allowed the fewest unearned 
runs.  He would have gotten my vote, too, with Tino Martinez as the 
runner-up.

In the other league, J.T. Snow gets the award almost by default these 
days, with the voters apparently having concluded that there's nobody 
else in his class.  But I can't find any real evidence to support that 
view:

- four other NL first baseman (Mark Grace, Todd Helton, Eric Karros, 
and Sean Casey) tied or exceeded Snow in fielding percentage this year.  

- Zeile, Helton, Grace, and Karros turned a lot more of the balls hit 
into their zones than did Snow, who was below average in this regard 
again this year.  

In my opinion, Todd Helton should have won the Gold Glove.  The best 
argument for Snow is that his teammates made the second-fewest throwing 
errors in the league (trailing Chicago, with Mark Grace).  But Snow's 
teams have not always distinguished themselves in this regard, so we 
cannot be sure how much of the credit should really go to the guys making 
the throws.


Second basemen
--------------

Here we go again.  Roberto Alomar won his ninth Gold Glove, and there isn't
a baseball writer or television commentator who doesn't gush incessantly
about Alomar's brilliance in the field.  And I've seen him make some very
spectacular plays myself.  Problem is, year after year, our analysis (and
other measures such as range factors and the STATS zone rating) shows 
that he doesn't make many more plays than the average second baseman.

Alomar was one of three Cleveland infielders to be rewarded with Gold 
Gloves this season.  But that infield was below the league average in 
turning ground balls into outs.  And according to the STATS Major League
Handbook, they were fourth WORST in the league in converting double plays 
when grounders were hit in double-play situations.  

And even though they used a lot of different pitchers this year, I don't 
think you can argue that this defense was made to look worse by a lousy 
pitching staff.  They did, after all, get almost 600 innings from three 
good starting pitchers (Burba, Colon, Finley) and a bunch more from a 
group of veteran relievers who have fared quite well playing in front 
of other defenses in the recent past.

The bottom line is that somebody isn't making nearly as many plays as 
people think.  There's no way you can look at the data and argue that 
it's all Jim Thome's fault.  He's at the league average in making outs
on balls hit into his zone.  In fact, it looks like he did a nice job
of getting to balls hit to his right, enough so that he took some plays
away from Alomar.  We assumed that Alomar would have made these plays
if Thome hadn't gotten there first, and we gave Alomar a Vg rating even
though his range factor, zone rating, and playmaking score were all 
quite average.

As was the case last year, my vote would go to Randy Velarde.  He covered
a lot of ground, outdid Alomar in fielding percentage, and helped turn
double plays at a much higher rate.

The other Gold Glove went to Pokey Reese for the second year in a row.
Our analysis shows that Reese's performance slipped a little from last
year's sky-high level, but remained one of the two best in the league.
The other candidate was Fernando Vina, who in my opinion was the better
fielder this year, though not by much.


Third basemen
-------------

Here we have one travesty and one slam-dunk winner.  Seeing as I've been
starting with the AL at each position, let's begin with the travesty.

Travis Fryman made only eight errors and led the majors with a .978
fielding percentage.  This is apparently the only thing the Gold Glove
voters considered, because it's the only aspect of his defensive game 
that was remotely positive.  He was third last in the majors in range
factor, and this is one case where a range factor is telling the truth.
His STATS zone rating was in the bottom 20%.  And our analysis shows that
he got to about 20 fewer balls than the average third baseman.

It's not often that we give a Fair range rating to a Gold Glove winner,
but if the voters are going to ignore the facts and just reward the guy 
with the fewest errors, we have no choice but to disagree with them.

So who did deserve it?  In defense of the voters, nobody else was a 
surefire winner.  The best candidates were Corey Koskie, Herbert Perry,
and Tony Batista.  In my mind, Perry didn't play enough, and it's a close
call between the other two.  I'd lean toward Batista, a converted 
shortstop, because he played more.

The NL winner was Scott Rolen, who is clearly one of the premier defensive
players in the game today.  And Rolen would have gotten my vote, too.  But
Adrian Beltre is also playing very well and is closing the gap.


Shortstops
----------

A common gripe among baseball analysts who study defense is that most
commentators place far too much emphasis on errors, ignoring the fact
that there is usually a much larger difference among fielders in the 
number of balls they reach in the first place.  Well, not this year.

In 2000, there was very little difference between the top and bottom 
shortstops in range, but a few excelled in sure-handedness.  Omar Vizquel
set a record by making only 3 errors in 658 chances.  That's astonishing.
Even more astonishing is that two other shorstops were close -- Rey 
Sanchez made only 4 errors in 674 chances and Mark Loretta only 2 in 
377 chances.

Along with his reputation, Vizquel's record-setting fielding percentage 
won the Gold Glove.  In my view, Sanchez had a better overall season, 
however, as Vizquel didn't demonstrate an above-average ability to get to
the ball in the first place.  Vizquel was below the major league average
in range factor, the STATS zone rating, and our own net plays analysis,
while Sanchez was well above average in all three categories.  Felix
Martinez also had a very good year defensively.

Over in the NL, Neifi Perez was the winner.  With the voters fixated so
much on fielding percentage, I'm assuming that Loretta missed out because
he only played about half the season.  Whatever the reason, it was good
that they left him out, because Loretta's range was subpar.  

In my view, Perez was a good choice.  Damian Jackson covered a lot of 
ground but made too many errors.  Alex Cora performed at the same level 
as Perez but played in only 101 games.  Rey Ordonez was hurt.

Because we have separate ratings for range and errors, and because the 
distinction among this year's shortstops was mainly in their fielding
percentages, we gave out a bunch of Vg range ratings.  But not one of 
the everyday shortstops earned an Ex rating.  I don't think this has 
ever happened before.


Outfielders
-----------

I'll start with the easiest one.  Darin Erstad dominanted his position
defensively more than any other player in baseball this year, and he fully 
deserved his award.  He may not be the best defensive player in baseball,
because he doesn't play the most demanding positions, but in the past two
years, he has dominated his fellow first basemen and left fielders.  And 
he's posted excellent numbers in short stretches in center field, too.

I also concur with the selection of Jermaine Dye.  He covered as much
ground as any right fielder and he brings a strong arm to the table, too.

The third AL selection, Bernie Williams, is another prime example of how
the voters place way too much emphasis on reputation and fielding 
percentage.  To his credit, Williams did not make a single error in 2000,
and he was the only everyday outfielder to accomplish that feat.  

Let's take a moment to consider the significance of this achievement.  
Among players with at least 1000 innings in the field, this has been
done eleven times in the past ten years.  Brett Butler (twice), Daryl 
Hamilton (three times), Stan Javier, Darren Lewis, Paul O'Neill, Eric
Owens, and BJ Surhoff were the others.

That's not bad.  An achievement that occurs only about once a year is
nothing to sneeze at.  But let's also remember that the average CF makes
only about 4 errors in the number of innings that Williams played this
year.  So his remarkable achievement amounts to saving four outs or
extra bases taken by opposing runners.  That's not a lot.  

When you consider that Williams is only in the middle of the pack in all 
measures of flycatching ability (range factor, zone rating, and our net 
plays analysis), those four plays don't warrant the honor that was 
bestowed on him.  Either Kenny Lofton or Chris Singleton would have been
a much better choice.

Over in the NL, the choices were Andruw Jones, Jim Edmonds, and Steve 
Finley.  Let's address them one at a time.

In 1998-99, Andruw Jones was far and away the best defensive player at any
position and fully deserved to supplant Ken Griffey in the minds of most
people as the best defensive center fielder in baseball.  He did it by
playing very shallow, which allowed him to nab a lot of line drives that
fell in front of others, and by doing a tremendous job of going back on
the deep ball.  This year, our analysis shows that he continued to do a
terrific job on balls hit in front of him, but he wasn't getting to nearly
as many balls that were hit over his head.  In my view, he was still a
very effective center fielder, but he didn't have his best year.

Jim Edmonds is the Roberto Alomar of the outfield.  He has made some of 
the most amazing plays I have ever seen, but he doesn't cover as much 
ground as the media would have us believe.  This year, he was in the 
middle of the pack in every measure that we look at.

Finally, the selection of Steve Finley is the biggest joke of the year.
He was second-last in the majors in range factor.  In the bottom 20% in
zone rating.  And, according to our analysis, he made about 33 fewer 
plays than the average CF on the balls hit into his territory.  In fact,
Finley was right on the borderline between a Fr and a Pr rating.  Because
he won the Gold Glove, we were generous and gave him a Fr, but it could
have gone either way.

So who should have received the NL outfielder Gold Gloves?  For the second
year in a row, Geoff Jenkins was the top left fielder in the league.  He'd
get one of them.  Although he didn't hit well enough to be in the lineup
every day, Ruben Rivera did enough on defense to earn the second one.  And
because no right fielder had a truly great year (Vladimir Guerrero and Bob
Abreu were closest), I'd give the third one to Andruw Jones.


Other comments
--------------

Now that we've offered our two-cents worth on the Gold Glove winners, there 
are some other players worth mentioning:

* Shane Andrews, 3B.  Andrews has always been on my list of under-rated 
players because his very low batting averages obscure his walks, power and 
superior range at third base.  I was surprised when I saw that his defense
wasn't anywhere near his past levels, but it made sense when I learned that 
he was disabled once for a lower back strain and then had back surgery in 
June.

* Albert Belle, RF.  By now, I'm sure you've heard that Belle suffered from
a serious hip condition this year.  He has a reputation as a one-dimensional
player -- pure hitter -- but he's actually been an intelligent baserunner
who didn't embarrass himself in the field.  And he had 88 stolen bases 
coming into 2000.  But every aspect of his game was affected by the hip 
problem, and his ratings are down across the board.

* Craig Biggio, 2B.  Age (34) and injuries (shoulder, knee) have been 
catching up to Biggio since he peaked in 1998.  His batting averages and
power numbers have declined significantly in each of the past two seasons,
and his defense and baserunning have been slipping as well.

* Will Clark, 1B.  I'm a little surprised that Clark chose to retire after
this season.  Our analysis shows that his game, which was in steady decline
for several years, came back all of a sudden this year.  Perhaps he knew 
there's no place for him in St. Louis with a healthy Mark McGwire returning
to the lineup, or perhaps he just wanted to leave on a high note.

* Shawn Green, RF.  I honestly don't know what accounts for the decline in
Green's performance this year.  We expected his offensive numbers to suffer
a little by the move to a pitcher's park, but they dropped far more than
can be explained by the change in venue.  But his baserunning and defense
also dropped from the elite category into the middle of the pack this year.

* Gene Kingsale, CF.  Kingsale has always been a speed demon who covers a
lot of ground in center field and burns up the basepaths.  But he missed
the first five months of the season with a torn right quad muscle, and his
performance in September suggests that he wasn't at full speed.  As a
result, his speed and defense ratings are down sharply this year, but if 
he's 100% next year, you can expect them to bounce right back.

* Jose Offerman, 2B/1B.  Because Offerman played hurt for much of the year, 
his game suffered in just about every way, and his defense, stealing and 
running ratings were way down from his normal levels.

* Todd Zeile, 1B.  It is not at all unusual for a third baseman to shine
on defense when moving across the diamond to play first.  But I was very
surprised to see this happen to Zeile, who was originally a catcher and
hasn't been a good defensive player at third.  But he blew away the 
competition in the STATS zone rating, the Diamond Mind zone rating, and 
our net plays analysis.  It will be interesting to see whether this was
a fluke or something he can sustain.
